Interest rates

The Bank will “raise its interest rates” despite a slight drop in inflation | City & Business | Finance

Its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was due to meet on Thursday but the summit was postponed to September 22, following the Queen’s death.

Research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that the MPC will raise the base rate by another 50 basis points, to 2.25%.

While other analysts believe that at least one or two of the nine rate regulators will vote to raise the rate – which affects borrowing costs for households and businesses – by some 75 basis points.

The Bank is trying to calm inflation, which hit a 40-year high of 10.1% in July. Some observers believe the data will show that inflation fell last month.

Banking and wealth management group Investec expects the Office for National Statistics to confirm next Wednesday that the consumer price index of inflation fell to 9.8%.

Inflation had been expected to pick up again due to earlier plans that would have seen energy prices soar in October.

The government’s two-year energy price freeze unveiled this week – a cap on the unit rate that will limit average bills to £2,500 a year – makes it less certain.

Experts also believe that lifting the threat of an 80% rise in energy prices for millions of consumers could mean they won’t cut spending as much, which in turn could boost the economy.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Hall of Fame, said: “A recession over the next few quarters no longer seems likely.”

The consultancy expects the economy to remain in the doldrums. It forecasts gross domestic product to grow just 0.2% in the third to fourth quarters of this year, then just 0.1% in the first and second quarters of 2023.

How the economy has developed over the summer will be revealed in July data released by the Office for National Statistics on Monday.